Hi Everyone,
This is my first article, so it would be great to get some feedback on your thoughts! I really like this company Whirlpool (WHR), and so I wanted to give some ideas on why. Whirlpool has a pretty simple business, they sell household appliances for more than they cost to make. I like this traditional play because along with a strong dividend yield, it has a consistent level of cash flow, and is generally safe.
The company owns some of the most iconic brands, including Whirlpool & KitchenAid, and has been able to extend that strong market position worldwide with 16.3% market share in home appliances from dishwashers to refrigerators. The investment thesis for the business is relatively simple. Strong brands create a defensible business model, and a low valuation makes it sensible to invest in such a business model.
This is not to say that there is no risk - Whirlpool has recently made note of many demand-side pressures and headwinds from margin compression which reduce the profitability of the company. The housing market as Mateo’s talked about is getting hammered, and is only likely to get worse. New home appliances are therefore less likely to be purchased (because of less new homes). On the other hand, it’s still clear that if one breaks, you will have to replace it, meaning there is a floor. The rising commodity prices which hampered profitability have also started abating.
All that said, even with the massive eps drop expected (from $26 to $15.5), you’re still paying below 10 times earnings on the company, and it isn’t likely to get worse than that. 10x earnings is about what you are supposed to pay for a company with absolutely no growth potential, but that you are confident will be decently safe long-term. Given that this is an incredibly down year, and the US still faces a massive building shortage and increasing household formation by Millenials as structural demographic tailwinds, the business is likely to be more successful than that in the future.
While you wait, they pay you a relatively secure 4.5% dividend yield, which is still at a below 50% payout ratio during the down year. The company only has about 5.7B in long term debt compared to 3B cash too.
Overall, I believe it’s a smart investment to put your money into an undervalued company, which is safe long-term but has temporarily suffered. Plus, you get paid above 4% to do it.
Written by: Arlis Muka
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